Mann
According to two University of Puget Sound (UPS) professors who are well versed on the subject, Pierce County's economic rebound in 2011 was among the strongest on record. UPS economists Bruce Mann and Douglas Goodman recently released their Pierce County Economic Index 2012 report, the 24th study they have done on the local economy.
They report that in 2011 unemployment fell, retail spending rose and home sales and office rentals have increased. The overall economy grew by 4.7 percent. This was stronger than expected. It was helped by several factors, including increased troop levels at Joint Base Lewis-McChord, activity at Boeing plants and growth in the health care sector.
Among the professors' predictions for this year is that the local economy will have regained the losses of the "Great Recession." In their report, they write that the economy will improve this year but the pace of recovery will be slow. They predict the economy will grow by 2.25 percent in 2012, which will mark two consecutive years of growth.
Mann noted that cargo container traffic through Port of Tacoma is up slightly, while non-containerized traffic is flat. Ongoing competition for shipping from other West Coast ports is always an issue to watch. "There is no major shift in shipping traffic that we see."
A number of factors in the global economy could impact our region. The ongoing economic uncertainty in Europe could spread to Asia. If that causes nations in Southeast Asia to experience difficulty acquiring financing, they will not be able to purchase imports shipped through our port. "That is a concern," he remarked.
The end of the American military involvement in Iraq has resulted in many troops returning to the local bases. "That brings a lot of income and economic activity back into the area," Mann said. However, ongoing unrest in the Middle East and North Africa could result in some of those troops being deployed overseas again. Any unrest that drives up the price of oil will have a major impact on the American economy, he added.
The average annual increase in jobs in this county will be about .5 percent, which the professors call the weakest recovery rate of local job growth on record. They predict it will take between three and six years to regain all the jobs lost during the recession. Last year unemployment averaged 9.6 percent. They predict it will fall to 8.7 percent in 2012.
The professors have noticed recent investments in retail projects. "That was a bit of a surprise," Mann observed.
Mann noted that Boeing and the union representing machinists recently agreed to a new labor deal that will keep employment up. "That impacts the county a lot," he said. "That was good news."
Construction of new housing remains weak. Mann expects it to be slow much of the year but it will slowly turn around. Apartment vacancy rates should stay in the 5 to 7 percent range. There likely will be a slight increase in rents. Vacancy rates will fall for commercial, office and industrial real estate, a trend that began last fall.
Business people and other members of the public who want a copy of the report can contact Gary Brackett at Tacoma/Pierce County Chamber of Commerce at garyb@tacomachamber.org or (253) 627-2175, extension 120.
