Tacoma’s two premier economists shared their analysis of the current recession, which they described as the worst in the past 40 years, and their insight into a recovery from it in the future.
The annual forecast of the area’s economic wellbeing, Pierce County Economic Index PECI, was presented Dec. 10 by Dr. Bruce Mann and Dr. Douglas Goodman, professors of economics at the University of Puget Sound. They spoke before an audience of about 450 people at Greater Tacoma Convention and Trade Center.
There are some stabilizing factors in the local economy, such as increased troop levels at the two military bases and a strong health-care sector. Still, the recession that has gripped the nation has impacted the Tacoma area, with the full brunt hitting in the beginning of this year.
“We could not, however, avoid bumps in the road forever,” Goodman said, using a road trip metaphor both professors utilized throughout the presentation. “We took a U-turn from the high road of growth to the low road of recession.”
This year saw quarterly declines in the PCEI of 1.1 percent, 2.8 percent, 4.2 percent and a predicted 4.3 percent for the fourth quarter.
Mann said the decline in the index in 2009 will wipe out the growth of the previous four years.
About 30 percent of the local population gets its income from sources other than working, such as pensions, welfare or interest and dividend earnings. Collapse of the financial markets reduced wealth in terms of stocks, bonds and home equity. This will continue to be a drag on the economy, even when it picks up for other people.
Between 2008 and 2010, Pierce County will lose 12,000 jobs and another 24,000 potential jobs will not be created. While data for the fourth quarter of this year has not been compiled yet, the professors predicted the rate of job losses will slow as 2009 comes to a close.
Retailers should not expect good tidings at the cash register from shoppers looking for Christmas presents, according to the professors. “This will be one of the weakest holiday seasons in some time,” Mann remarked.
TV Tacoma will broadcast the event at the following times: Dec. 17 at 1 p.m. and 9 p.m.; Dec. 18 at 2 p.m. and 10 p.m.; Dec. 19 at 8 a.m. and 5 p.m.; Dec. 20 at 1 a.m., 3 p.m. and 8 p.m.; Dec. 21 at 4 a.m., 2 p.m. and 8 p.m. and Dec. 22 at 4 a.m. and 11 p.m.
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